How important is the 9^th inning? How important is the pitcher coming out of the bullpen to close out the 9^th inning? Do major league teams overvalue the 9^th inning? Was a 3 year/$37 million dollar contract to Francisco Rodriguez justified after a 62 save season?

To answer these questions, I will look at the top 10 Major League closers in Saves, as well as, any closer being paid over $10 million outside of the top 10, namely Jonathon Papelbon, Brad Lidge and Francisco Rodriguez (if you could even consider the last two closers). In order to analyze baseball’s best closers I used three factors, VORP, save efficiency, and salary. VORP is the amount of runs saved by the closer over a replacement Triple-A call-up, and safe efficiency is just saves subtracted by blown saves.

These two factors help show the true value of a closer, because for a pitcher like Jonathon Papelbon, who does not get that many save opportunities, his value is still high because he saves a lot of runs and does not blow many saves (only one this season). Based only on these two statistics the top 10 closers in baseball look like this:

1. Craig Kimbrel

2. John Axford

3. Joel Hanrahan

4. Jonathon Papelbon

5. Brian Wilson

6. Jose Valverde

7. Heath Bell

8. Mariano Rivera

9. Sergio Santos

10. Leo Nunez

However, when salary is added into the mix this list changes drastically, because the “game’s best closers” are unbelievably overpaid. Check out the changes…

1. Craig Kimbrel
2. John Axford
3. Sergio Santos
4. Drew Storen
5. Jordan Walden
6. Nefalti Feliz
7. Joel Hanrahan
8. Leo Nunez
9. Chris Perez
10. Brian Wilson

The top 6 closers, when salary is included, make under $450k this season, which is why their value is so much higher than the rest. This shows how truly good the Brewers’ John Axford and the Braves’ Craig Kimbrel have been this season, they lead both lists with the best statistics and the best value cause of their low salaries. Kimbrel has been worth over 15 times his contract this season, and Axford trails just behind him, he is worth over 13 times his. The top 6 on this list make a combined 2.5 million dollars this season. That is 1/5 of each of Jonathon Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, and Brad Lidge’s 12 million dollar contracts, and less then half of each of Brian Wilson, Jose Valverde, Huston Street, and Heath Bell’s 7 million dollar contracts.

It seems to have become a trend in baseball for a big market ballclub to sign their closer to about a 12 million dollar a year deal, and for a smaller market ballclub to sign their all-star closer to about a 7 million dollar a year deal. A closer, literally, has to be an all-star, however, to be worth that 7 million dollar deal. The only closers this season that; so far, project to be worth that much this season would only be the top 5 of the original list, based on statistics. Thus, most major league teams overvalue the 9^th inning, and routinely overpay their closers to get their “coveted saves”. To answer the question raised at the beginning of this analysis, K-rod’s huge contract with the Mets after his record setting season was not justified, because it was impossible to expect him to stay on a 62 save-season level, as well as, no closer is worth over 12 million dollars a season, let alone 10 million.

Thus, major league teams should bring up closers from their farm system that make near negligible salaries, along the lines of Kimbrel, Axford, Storen, Santos, and Walden, and let them grow and close out games until they can either be traded for more valuable pieces just before they reach free agency, or just let them go into free agency. Because when a closer becomes a free agent, their value decreases greatly, a good closer on the market now receives at least 7 million dollar a year deals, that truly are not worth it even for an all-star closer.

Many so-called experts will say you cannot just throw any guy into the 9^th inning, that there is a specific demeanor about it, and that proven true closers are hard to come by. By this reasoning, overpaying for a Jonathon Papelbon or a Heath Bell is somewhat justified; however, the experts are wrong about this. Year in and year out, new closers pop-up in the majors and some prove themselves and some do not. Those who do, though, become drastically overpaid when it comes time for a contract extension.