Baseball's Economist

It's been months since I've written on here, and let me just say it brings back a lot of memories, from the beginning of my baseball writing career.  I just wanted to link to the places where my writing still appears:

-I write about the Yankees for Bugs&Cranks

-I write weekly features (Mondays) for Call to the Pen

-I write weekly features (Thursdays) for Beyond the Boxscore

Keep following and never forget how amazing the game of baseball actually is.

Glenn DuPaul

"Baseball's Economist"

 Matt Cain and Joey Votto just got rich, very rich. This week, Matt Cain signed a 5-year/$112.5 million contract extension today to stay with the San Francisco Giants.  Cain is making the most money on one multi-year contract than any other right-handed pitcher in Major League history, and when his current one-year/$15 million deal is included his contract totals to 6-years and $127.5 million. Joey Votto also agreed to a massive 10-year/$225 million extension with the Cincinnati Reds.  When his current 2 year/$26.5 million deal is included into this contract, it works out to the longest contract in baseball history, 12 years for $251.5 million.  It’s crazy that both of these extensions went down one the same day and only a few days before Opening Day of the 2012 seasons.  I’ll do my best to analyze whether or not these contracts make any sense.

Cain:

The fact that Cain is being paid more than any right-hander ever does not mean, that he is the greatest right-handed pitcher of all-time.  The reason Cain made so much is the current free agent environment.  The market that is out there in the baseball world currently for starting pitching is lucrative.  After the 2012 seaons, Cain was set to join a talented free agent pitching crop of Brandon McCarthy, Zack Grienke, and Cole Hamels.  Brian Sabean, the Giants’ GM, understood that if he let Cain out on the open market his price would’ve sky rocketed as teams competed over his arm and the others on the market. 

Cain is a strangely consistent pitcher.  Cain has thrown 200+ innings over the last five seasons, his fWAR has been 3.3 or above in each of the last six seasons, and his ERA has ranged from 2.88-3.14 over the last three seasons.  Thus, Cain is not only consistent but also very good.  Cain’s consistencies become almost eerie, when one delves farther into his statistics.  His K-rate always sits in the low-7’s, his walk rate has been in the high-2’s/low-3’s range, while he gives so few home runs.  His career HR/9 rate is 0.74, he has never given up more than 1 HR/9 in his career, and last season he only gave up a home run once every 26.5 innings (or one every four or five starts).  Cain has also been an anomaly on the blogosphere because his ERA is about 1 run below his xFIP, every year.  This was a concern with the San Francisco righty for a good deal of time, but I don’t think it is anymore.  Cain has shown the ability to keep not only the ball in the park but also getting soft contact (his BABIP has ranged from .252-.297 during his career with an average of .265).

So we’ve established that Cain has been consistent and very good, which is what Sabean is paying him to continue to be, but over the next six seasons will Cain be successful enough to be worth $127.5 million over the next six seasons.  My weighted fWAR projection for Cain is 4.2.  I’ll assume he won’t decline from that 4.2 WAR value until 2015, thus using $/WAR analysis I project Cain to be worth a total of $124.3 million over the course of the contract.  Thus, under my projection the Giants will lose around $3 million on this contract, which isn’t too bad, and most likely the premium they were willing to pay to keep Cain in town.  So in terms of dollars, this deal isn’t horrible, but does it make sense when the Giants’ organization is taken into consideration?

The Giants have zero offense.  Sabean has failed miserably with the veteran free agent bat contracts he has dolled out… does Aaron Rowand, Miguel Tejada, or Edgar Renteria ring any bells?  The smarter decision may have been to let Cain go, and sign a less expensive free agent arm, like McCarthy and in turn gone after a bat to help their dreadful lineup.  Also, the Giants’ other ace, Tim Lincecum will be a free agent after the 2013 season, and will be expecting a contract similar if not more than the one Cain just inked.  If Sabean wants to keep both aces around he’ll have to use around a third of payroll on the two starters, which is not the best allocation of resources.  San Francisco has a major decision coming up now because they’re set with Cain.  Either they roll the dice and sign Lincecum, trade the freak for some bats, or let him walk and use the money elsewhere.

Votto:

This off-season, Votto’s former NL Central competitors, Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, signed free agent contracts of similar length and value to that of the one Votto just received.   Thus, when those contracts are taken into consideration this deal isn’t surprising.  However, it is surprising that Cincinnati a team that many thought wouldn’t be able to retain Votto, and also that Fielder and Pujols were free agents when they signed their deals, while Votto had two seasons left with the Reds.  Votto has been incredible over the last three years, winning the MVP in 2010.  His fWAR has ranged between 4.7 and 6.9 over the last three years, and his wOBA has been over .400 in each season.  Votto has the perfect combination of power and average, and he has the ability to sustain a very high BABIP.  Votto plays solid defense, winning a Gold Glove last season.  Votto may not have the track record of a Pujols, but he has been very, very good and the Reds must think he’s going to continue to be that good for the next twelve seasons.  But is Votto worth $251.5 million?

Like the Cain analysis above I took a weighted average of Votto’s last three season’s fWAR to get a projected fWAR of 6.42, as well as assuming an after-30 decline of .5 WAR per season and then did a $/WAR analysis.  Based on this projection model, Votto is going to be a very special player for a long time (he still projects to be worth 2 wins above replacement as a 39 year-old).  I also project that the Reds won’t start losing money on this contract until the last two seasons of the contract and he’ll be worth a total of $341 million over the 12 years, bringing back almost $90 million in surplus value. 

So the Votto contract looks like a great decision by the Reds, even though the 12-year contract is the longest in baseball history and has a lot of risk going a long with it, but Votto seems like a pretty safe bet.  The only question remaining with this deal is whether or not Cincinnati is a big enough market to afford not only this contract but also to pay for the pieces that they need to surround a talent like Votto with.  I’m not going to get into TV revenue streams, or attendance figures, because quite frankly I don’t know what the future holds for the Reds, but they seem to think if they continue their winning ways they’ll receive the TV revenue and ticket sales to sustain this massive contract. 

These two contracts are great for baseball because not only will two stars be staying with the teams that drafted them for a long time, but also the fact that these moves are a great way to kick off what is sure to be a memorable Opening Week in baseball.  Happy Opening Day to All!

Albert Pujols… ever heard of him?? My guess is you have, I've written about him constantly on this blog, he’s been the best player in baseball over the last decade, and he also happened to ink the second (or third depending on who you talk to) biggest contract in baseball history this off-season, to move from his home in St. Louis to sunny Southern California. Most of the talk surrounding Pujols this off-season has been about whether or not the Los Angeles Angels made a mistake in giving Pujols such a long lucrative deal. I’ve already written extensively on about that contract, and that’s not what this post is about. This post is about how good Albert is going to be this season. Baseball Prospectus’ deadly accurate PECOTA projection system projects this stat-line for Pujols in 2012: .305/.402/.556 37 home runs 111 RBI’s and 11 stolen bases.

That stat-line gives a more traditional picture of how good Pujols could be in 2012. Pujols is projected to lead the league in traditional statistics, as well as, some highly regarded sabermetric statistics including, home runs, RBI’s, OBP, SLG, OPS, TAv, and WARP. Also, Pujols is projected to be the best fielding first baseman in baseball with an FRAA (fielding runs above average) of 16 runs saved; 8 runs higher than any other first baseman. So how good will Pujols be for the Angels in his first season with the club?... Well, according to PECOTA he’ll be as good as advertised and then some.

I’d like to quickly put some of the numbers in these projections in perspective. Pujols’ projected tAV (.340) is 14 points higher than the projected second best hitter, Miguel Cabrera (.326). Pujols’ projected WARP (7.5) is 1.9 wins higher than the second highest projected hitter, Evan Longoria (5.6). Thus, PECOTA not only projects Albert Pujols to be the best defensive first baseman in baseball, the best hitter in baseball, but also the most valuable hitter in baseball by almost 2 wins. That is absurd. So I’d everyone to forget about the next nine years in the future, and just for the moment focus on 2012. One of the most realistic projection systems in the world thinks Albert Pujols is still baseball’s best player, and it thinks Pujols is the best by a large margin.

To be honest I’m jumping right on board the PECOTA bandwagon, Albert will be the king of baseball again in this season, just this time he’ll be dominating in Anaheim.

This week while reading one of Jayson Stark’s articles, a point about Tampa Bay Rays' starter, Jeremy Hellickson, that I had made last season was called into question. I agree with Stark, that coming into 2012 the Rays have the best rotation in baseball; however, the player I’ve doubted the most in their rotation was Hellickson, last year’s AL Rookie of the Year. I doubted him for one critical reason, his ridiculously low BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Typically pitchers are thought to be lucky if their BABIP is below .300 and unlucky if it’s above .300. Hellickson had the lowest BABIP in baseball last season (.223) by over 13 points. The point I made during last season about Hellickson was that, he was terribly lucky and overrated and that San Franciso Giants' starter Madison Bumgarner was terribly unlucky and underrated. Andrew Friedman’s (the Rays’ GM, who’s opinion I respect greatly) quote in the Stark article has made me doubt my original opinion about Hellickson. Friedman believes Hellickson’s BABIP is sustainable, and I beg to question is he right?

A BABIP below .300 usually yields a lower ERA than peripheral statistics or estimators, such as FIP or xFIP. Hellickson’s fielding independent xFIP, which eliminates BABIP entirely, was 4.72 last season. That number is the reason why I questioned everyone’s thought that Hellickson’s 2011 season, in which he had a 2.95 ERA was so great. However, when looking at the numbers, there’s reason to believe over the course of his career, Hellickson’s BABIP will always finish under 300. Hellickson’s minor league BABIP’s were typically less than .300 and below is a look at his Major league numbers (All projections are from the PECOTA system):

2010 K/9: 8.17

2011 K/9: 5.57

2012 K/9 (projected): 7.2

2010 BABIP: .267

2011 BABIP: .223

2012 BABIP (projected): .268

2010 ERA: 3.47

2011 ERA: 2.95

2012 ERA (projected): 3.36

2010 FIP: 3.88

2011 FIP: 4.44

2012 FIP (projected): 4.04

Based on Fangraphs’ defensive metrics, the Rays had the best defense in the American league last season. This fact may have led to Hellickson’s extremely low ERA and BABIP, but also may have changed the starter’s approach completely. I don’t think it would be bold to postulate that Hellickson may have tried to not strike batters out in 2011, but instead attempt to pitch to softer contact, to capitalize on the Rays’ defensive abilities.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system projects that Hellickson will continue to have a lower ERA than FIP, as well as, have a BABIP below .300. This projection system even lists Matt Cain as his top active comparable. Cain is known for the fact that he consistently has a lower ERA than his peripherals. Cain’s career BABIP is .265, which leads me to believe in Friedman’s point. Hellickson’s 2011 may have been slightly lucky, but a comparison with Cain, and a projection of a very good ERA (3.36) in 2012, goes a long way in proving that Hellickson’s Rookie of the Year campaign was not a fluke. Thus, I retract my original opinion about Hellickson, he’s not lucky; in fact he’s very good.

Today, Matt Kemp channeled his inner Joe Namath, and made one of the boldest predictions I’ve ever heard.  Kemp has decided he’s going to make baseball history in 2012.  He predicted that he is going to be the first player to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 stolen bases in a single season (50-50).  He was one home run away last season from joining baseball’s prestigious 40-40 club, and after signing a massive contract extension this off-season, Kemp’s ego and confidence are sky high…. which has him acting borderline crazy.

 Kemp has never hit 40 home runs and prior to 2011 had never hit more than 30 home runs. His career high in stolen bases came last season when he stole 40; his career high prior to 2011 was 35.  Kemp hasn’t come anywhere close to proving that he can steal 50 bases or hit 50 home runs, but then again few have proved they can achieve either of those feats; let alone both of them.  Barry Bonds and Brady Anderson (we’ll leave steroids out of this conversation) are the only players in baseball history to hit 50 home runs in one season, and also steal 50 bases in a season; however, they didn’t achieve those feats in the same season, like Kemp plans to accomplish.

 Kemp is still very young (27) and maybe his monster 2011 season is something he can build upon.  Kemp is super durable (155+ games per season since 2008) and with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder leaving the National League, he’s the best player in the NL.  Kemp is a superstar, don’t get me wrong, but 50-50 is just not possible and not something he should be talking about on day one of Spring Training.  Kemp is very talented, and proved last season that he may be talented enough to join the 40-40 club; yet the members of the 40-40 club (Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Jose Canseco, and Alfonso Soriano… again I’m not going to say anything about steroids), weren’t even close to achieving the 50-50 mark.

 During the Steroid Era, a 50-50 season seems like it would have been possible, but it never happened.  Baseball’s current atmosphere is nowhere close to the hitting environment of the Steroid Era.  Jose Bautista lead the MLB in home runs last season, by putting 43 out of the park.  Bautista is also the only player to hit 50 home runs since 2008 (54 in 2010).  40 home runs is an anomaly in today’s game (only two players hit over 40 in 2011); so to think that Kemp is going to hit 50 is absurd.  Also, only one player had over 50 steals last season, Michael Bourn had 61, so I also would think you’re out of your mind if you think Kemp will steal 50 bags.

 This season, Matt Kemp will in all likelihood have an incredible follow-up campaign to his MVP-caliber 2011.  Baseball Think Factory and Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projections have Kemp hitting 31 home runs and stealing 32 bases; which would be an All-star season.  I’d chalk up Kemp’s chances of a 50-50 season at about .0001%.  So my advice for Mr. Kemp is to stop talking crazy, and start enjoying Spring Training and your 160 million dollars.

Does Billy Beane know something that no one else in baseball knows… again?? How could baseball’s smallest market team put up a figure that scared off all the big market teams, including the craziest spenders of this off-season, for a player who has never stepped foot on even a minor league field in America? This week, Yoenis Cespedes signed a 4 year/$36 million contract with Beane’s Oakland Athletics. Kevin Goldstein rated Cespedes the 20^th best prospect in baseball coming into 2012, and he has put up some incredible numbers against baseball’s elite, albeit in a small sample size. In six games during the 2009 WBC, Cespedes hit 2 home runs, drove in 5, and hit .458; good for an OPS of 1.480. This move by Oakland came completely out of left field (pun intended), and brings up many interesting questions; I’ll attempt to answer three of them.

1. Does this deal make financial sense for Oakland?

This deal does make financial sense because to be worth $9 million a year, Cespedes will only need accumulate a WAR of 8.0 (based on today’s current market). Also, the contract does not push Oakland’s 2012 payroll over $60 million. Id be shocked if Cespedes wasn’t worth 2 wins a season over the next four years. The outfielders who had around 2.0 fWAR in 2011, were Coco Crisp, David Dejesus, Seth Smith, and Josh Willingham… all who are ironically connected to Oakland. I’m not a scout so I can’t truly analyze his ability, but from what I’ve read Cespedes will likely be more productive than those five players. I’m sure Beane feels the same way, or else he would not have made Cespedes his highest paid player for the upcoming season.

2. Can Cespedes reach his maximum potential, and if he does what does that mean for Oakland?

Based on Cespedes' 2011 numbers in Cuba, Clay Davenport projects a major league line of .245/.311/.469 for the Cuban outfielder. A .780 OPS is solid and similar to the offensive numbers put up by outfielders, Adam Jones, Marlon Byrd, and the 2007-10 version of Hunter Pence; which would be serviceable to Oakland, but not the superstar Beane seems to be hoping for. Oakland's front office must think that Cespedes will reach his lofty potential, and be a powerful corner outfielder along the lines of Jay Bruce. Over the last two seasons, Bruce has produced an average of 29 home runs and an OPS of .832. Bruce is projected (by Bill James) to have an OPS of .859 and hit 32 home runs, in 2012. An outfielder in his late twenties, who is able to put up those kind of numbers would be an extremely valuable asset, and make this signing an incredible one.

The question is if Cespedes will be used to bring in another stock of prospects to continue Oakland’s rebuilding, or if his production will have Oakland competing during 2014 and ‘15 seasons. Beane has traded almost all of his valuable assets away this off-season (Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Andrew Bailey), for a stock of young players that have added to Oakland’s youth. Oakland won’t be competitive in the A.L. West in 2012 or 2013. But, they have an interesting young pitching staff, and Jemile Weeks is a ballplayer, so by 2014 when there will be two wild cards teams, it would not be outrageous to think the Athletics will be a playoff contender. Waiting through two more non-competitive seasons may be a little depressing for Oakland fans, but there is definitely some glimmers of hope.

3. Is cleaning house at a certain position and then acquiring a massive surplus at that position in the same off-season, the new "Moneyball" strategy?

On December 31^st, Oakland’s outfield consisted of Ryan Sweeny, Michael Taylor, and Jermaine Mitchell, …. Who?? Since then, they have traded for Josh Reddick, Smith, and Colin Cowgill, and signed Crisp, Cespedes, and Jonny Gomes. The moneyball concept used to be acquiring players with high OBP’s, that concept now seems to be all about converting a weakness into a surplus. Let’s say you lock in Crisp in center and Cespedes in right, that leaves Oakland with four outfielders, two left-handed and two right-handed all competing for left field. I’m not sure if Beane has a plan to trade some of this stock, or just wants an incredible amount of depth. Cespedes, Smith, Reddick, Cowgill and Crisp are all under team control for at least the next three years, so it seems that Gomes is the most expendable. This amount of outfielders leaves me as confused as Scott Hatteberg must’ve been when he was told that he was going to replace Jason Giambi at first base in 2002. I honestly cannot come to any conclusion on what Beane expects to do with all of these outfielders. My best guess is that he hopes Gomes gets enough at-bats in 2012, to have some value at the trade deadline, then trade Smith either before 2013 or during, and have Crisp, Cespedes, and Reddick as a lethal outfield in 2014. I’m not sure if Beane’s strategy for the future is the right one, but the last time he thought outside the box like this, his team was a perennial contender.

Edwin Jackson, the last major free agent, signed a one-year contract with the Washington Nationals last week. The move makes some sense, but at the same time doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. I wrote a piece at the beginning of the off-season, about why Edwin Jackson was the best (value) starting pitcher on the market. So obviously I think the Nationals made the right move in signing him, he’ll be worth the $9-12 million (exact details won’t be released until he has had his physical) they’re paying him. Washington was already an interesting team going into 2012, and the addition of Jackson makes them all the more interesting.

Jackson has been extremely consistent over the last three seasons; however, his consistency on the diamond hasn’t led to a consistent home. The Nationals will be his 8^th franchise in the last ten seasons and fifth in the last three years (if you count his small stay as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays franchise). Over the last three seasons Jackson has averaged 11.66 wins, 207.66 innings, a FIP- of 92, and an fWAR of 3.73. The Nationals should expect about those same numbers from Jackson this season, which would be a very solid year, and worth the amount of money they’re spending on him. Jackson should be worth between $15 and $17 million next season (if you value one win above replacement at $5 million).

The Nationals rotation will now consist of Jordan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jackson, and John Lannan. That’s a very good rotation, maybe not as good as the rotations of division rivals Atlanta and Philadelphia, but an argument can be made for the Nationals' rotation being among the best in the National league. You add in the fact that Bryce Harper is coming up the ranks, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman could bounce back, the back-end of their bullpen consists of Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, and Brad Lidge, and there may be a contending team in DC. Washington’s division is tough, but the Central is weaker (without Pujols or Fielder), and the West is also not very strong, so if Bud Selig succeeds in adding a second Wild Card team for 2012, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Washington competing for that final playoff spot.

Washington didn’t overpay for Jackson, and have made serious acquisitions to move them closer to contention right now and for the future. My only confusion with this move is why it was only for one season. The Nationals have Strasburg, Werth, Harper, Gonzalez, and both Zimmerman(n)’s locked up beyond 2012, so why didn’t they sign the 28 year-old righty in Jackson for a longer period of time? The answer is that Jackson and his agent Scott Boras asked for a one-year deal so Jackson can again test the free agent waters next season, and quite frankly this strategy makes no sense. This off-season’s class of starting pitchers was below average, with CJ Wilson as the number 1 free agent starter (Yu Darvish wasn’t truly a free agent). Next years crop of starters could make the market worse for Jackson than it was this season, regardless of his 2012 performance. Potential free agent starters include Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Anibal Sanchez, Zack Greinke, Brandon McCarthy, and Shaun Marcum.

The Nationals and Jackson would have been smarter to agree on a three-year deal, because that would’ve been more beneficial for both parties. But Jackson is only signed for a year and we’ll see what kind of deal Boras can get him next off-season, there’s a good chance that, in 2013, Jackson will be playing for his 9^th franchise, which is unbelievable for such a young pitcher with such a solid track record of consistency.

The Detroit Tigers came out of nowhere Tuesday, and signed baseball’s number 2 free agent, Prince Fielder to a massive contract. The Mariners, Nationals, and Rangers were all rumored to be front-runners in the race for the first baseman’s services, but in the end it was Detroit who swooped in to win the race. Fielder’s father, Cecil, played six and a half seasons with the Tigers, where he hit 245 home runs for the franchise. His son will now reside in Detroit for the next nine seasons, and make an incredible $214 million ($23.7 million AAV). Is the hefty first baseman worth such a monster contract and does he have the ability to put the Tigers over the top in a loaded American League?

My weighted average projection based on Prince’s last three seasons, is that Prince will be a 5 fWAR player for the next two seasons. Then I simply assumed Prince would decline by a half a win per seasons once he turns 30. Using linear-dollars per WAR to calculate the dollar value of this production (with a 5% inflation rate), I came to the conclusion that a simple projection of Prince’s worth over the course of this contract would be $184 million. Thus, the Tigers overpaid for Prince by $30 million if you assume he’ll decline in the same way a major leaguer with a typical body would. That last assumption is critical in this analysis, because Prince is not your average major leaguer; he is 5’11” and 268 pounds. Fangraphs did an insightful analysis of how heavier players decline, and based on that graph it seems as though Prince could decline much quicker than projected, and be worth even less than $184 million. Fielder might be a $23.7 million player now, although I’m not sure he is (for example: in 2010 he wasn’t close to being worth that type of money), but 4,6, 9 years from now? It’s ridiculous to think he would be. Thus, financially this was the wrong move for Detroit, but they have the talent to win now, and this factor brings up a whole new set of questions.

The fact of the matter is that the Tigers know this contract will end up being an albatross, they know Prince won’t be worth it in the end, but they don’t care. If Prince Fielder can bring a championship to Detroit; that could be enough in their front office’s mind to justify this contract. The Tigers were as good as any team in the league last year, in which they reached the ALCS. Detroit sat back all off-season and watched the Angels sign Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson, the Rangers sign Yu Darvish, the Rays make super-prospect Matt Moore a member of their starting rotation, and the Yankees acquire Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda. They also lost their third most productive hitter, Victor Martinez for the entire 2012 campaign. Detroit essentially had to make a move, to give them a chance to compete against the premier clubs in the A.L.

Last season Martinez hit a wOBA of .368 mainly at DH, which produced an fWAR of 2.9. That’s a large chunk of production missing in the middle of the Tigers’ lineup, which Fielder can now seamlessly fill. In even his worst season, Fielder amassed a better wOBA and fWAR than Martinez did last seasons; thus replacing Martinez with Fielder will help the Tigers overall. Now Detroit has the option to move Miguel Cabrera to 3^rd base and let Fielder play first. Cabrera has 389 career games at third with a DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) of -30 and UZR/150 of -4.5, which isn’t horrible, but those games were played a long time ago when he was in better shape. A possible strategy would be to start the very inconsistent Brandon Inge at 3^rd and have Cabrera DH. If Inge can perform at his 2010 All-star level (2.1 fWAR), then the Tigers will be a very good team in 2012.

The 2012 Detroit Tigers will have a lineup that includes, Cabrera, Fielder, Alex Avila, Jhonny Peralta, Austin Jackson, and Delmon Young. Their rotation boasts Justin Verlander, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello. On paper, it looks as though the Tigers are set to match their 2011 win total of 95 wins (48.5 fWAR), but are they really? I aggregated FANS projections to give a fairly accurate projection for fWAR of the 2012 Tigers, of 49.6. The projected team total fWAR of 49.6 makes the Tigers, a 92-98 win team in 2012. Thus, even though the Tigers will lose Martinez in 2012, the addition of Fielder is enough to make them a playoff team and World Series contender. Prince Fielder’s legacy in Detroit will be defined on whether or not he brings a World Series, because if he does not, an overpaid fat 36 year-old first baseman will be all that’s remembered.

I’ve yet to discuss Hall of Fame credentials on this site, so when it was announced this week that Barry Larkin, the Cinncinatti Reds great shortstop would be the only member of the 2012 Baseball Hall of Fame class, I figured I’d take a look into why Larkin is a Hall of Famer. Larkin becomes the 22^nd shortstop to be elected to baseball’s hall; but how do his numbers stack up both traditionally and sabrmetrically against names like Ernie Banks, Cal Ripken Jr., Ozzie Smith, and Luis Aparicio.

 Larkin has won many awards that stack up to paint a picture of him as a Hall of Famer.  Larkin was a 12-time All-star, 9-time Silver Slugger, 3-time Gold Glover, and won the 1995 NL MVP award (first by a shortstop since Maury Willis won in 1962).  He also was a key member of the Reds 1990 World Series championship team.  That’s a pretty solid resume of awards before even delving into the numbers.  Larkin also looks like a Hall of Famer when you consider his traditional numbers (hits, RBI’s, home runs, etc.)

 I always thought that a Hall of Fame hitter should have 3,000 hits or 500 home runs to be a for sure Hall of Famer.  Yet Larkin has only had 2,340 hits and didn’t even hit 200 home runs (198), but compared to the other 21 Hall of Fame shortstops those numbers are still very solid.  Among those 21 Cooperstown members, Larkin ranks 10^th in both hits and RBI’s (960).  He is also 4^th in home runs, 6^th in stolen bases (379), and tied for 7^th in batting average (.295).  Thus, based on traditional baseball statistics, Larkin is a top 10 all-time shortstop and should be in Cooperstown.  But are his peripherals good enough to be among baseball’s elite?

 Hall of Fame shortstops range typically range from 60 to 85 wins in their careers, based on fWAR.  Larkin’s career 70.6 fWAR puts him right in the thick of qualifying as an all-time great and he ranks 9^th among the current members of baseball’s hall.  Many Sabermatricians point to OPS one of the best statistics to determine a hitter’s ability, and Larkin’s career OPS of .815 ranks 5^th among the 22 shortstops in Cooperstown.  I am not a member of the BBWA and don’t plan on ever being a voter for who should achieve baseball immortality, but if I had a vote, I’d vote for Larkin and I’m glad that he’ll be inducted into the Hall of Fame in July.

Imagine how good it would feel to hit a home run every fourth fly ball in the major leagues. Well the Miami Marlins’ right fielder, Mike Stanton, knows that feeling. Stanton posted the highest HR/FB rate among qualified hitters in the major leagues in 2011 at 24.8%. In Stanton’s first full major league season, 2011, he hit 34 home runs and posted a wOBA of .378 with an ISO power rating of .275 (3^rd in the majors). The 22 year-old projects to continue posting incredible power numbers. In 2010, Stanton combined for 43 home runs between AA and the majors posting an ISO of .248 at the major league level, and his HR/FB rate was also ridiculous at 22.9%. Over the course of his short major league career (250 games), Stanton hits a fly ball almost 40% of the time, while almost 25% of those fly balls have resulted in a round-tripper, if these numbers persist Stanton’s home runs will continue to rack up to possibly legendary power hitting highs. But does Stanton have an Achilles’ heel? Yes of course, like most great power hitters Stanton strikes out a ton.

Stanton may be hitting almost 1 home run per every four fly balls hit in his career, but he has struck out more than once per every four at-bats during his career (29% K rate). In 2011, Stanton was 3^rd in the majors in ISO power, yet was also third worst in the majors in K% (27.6%). Stanton’s K% and BB% did improve by around 3% each from 2010 to 2011, and as Stanton is young those numbers could continue to improve. However, I wouldn’t expect much improvement from the powerful righty, who never posted a K% below 21% in his professional career. Many have compared Stanton to his N.L. East powerful counterpart, Ryan Howard, because of their comparable height/weight and the raw power/awful strikeout numbers Howard has posted throughout his career. Yet I don’t completely agree with this comparison for a few reasons.

Howard’s first full major league season came as a 26 year-old, making him a much less raw player at the start of career. His late debut has lead to an already apparent decline in Howard’s power numbers. While Howard’s strikeout numbers have remained steady over his career (averaged a K% of 27.8 before he was 30, and a K% of 26% since he’s turned 30), his power numbers have significantly declined (averaged an ISO of .312 before he was 30, and an ISO of .232 since he has turned 30). Stanton has so much more youth than Howard, we may not see a decline in his power numbers for another decade.

Howard isn’t old (will be 33 for the whole 2012 season), but he hasn’t hit 300 homeruns yet in his career (286), thus he cannot be considered an all-time great power hitter. When Howard was 22 he had 0 career major league home runs; Stanton has already hit 56 home runs in his major league career. Stanton will be an all-time great power hitter. In his first 100 major league games as a 20 year old, Stanton hit 22 home runs. Last season, while playing in 50 more games he hit 12 more home runs than the season before. Most project Stanton to improve on these incredible numbers next season and as Stanton develops into his prime. Bill James projects Stanton to hit 39 home runs next season, with an ISO of .295 and a K% of 26.4%. Let’s say that somehow Stanton does not improve and is consistent over the next decade, averaging 34 home runs over those 10 seasons, (this of course, is an underprojection for the young slugger) he’ll have 396 career home runs going into the 2022 season, in which he would be a 32 year-old (younger than Howard is currently), with a legitimate opportunity at finishing his career as a 500 home run hitter and with baseball's current decline in power hitting, a clear-cut Hall of Fame power hitter.