Baseball's Economist's posts tagged San Francisco Giants

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• Jeremy Hellickson: Is his BABIP sustainable?

  February 29, 2012

  This week while reading one of Jayson Stark’s articles, a point about Tampa Bay Rays' starter, Jeremy Hellickson, that I had made last season was called into question. I agree with Stark, that coming into 2012 the Rays have the best rotation in baseball; however, the player I’ve doubted the most in their rotation was Hellickson, last year’s AL Rookie of the Year. I doubted him for one critical reason, his ridiculously low BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Typically pitchers are thought to be lucky if their BABIP is below .300 and unlucky if it’s above .300. Hellickson had the lowest BABIP in baseball last season (.223) by over 13 points. The point I made during last season about Hellickson was that, he was terribly lucky and overrated and that San Franciso Giants' starter Madison Bumgarner was terribly unlucky and underrated. Andrew Friedman’s (the Rays’ GM, who’s opinion I respect greatly) quote in the Stark article has made me doubt my original opinion about Hellickson. Friedman believes Hellickson’s BABIP is sustainable, and I beg to question is he right?

  A BABIP below .300 usually yields a lower ERA than peripheral statistics or estimators, such as FIP or xFIP. Hellickson’s fielding independent xFIP, which eliminates BABIP entirely, was 4.72 last season. That number is the reason why I questioned everyone’s thought that Hellickson’s 2011 season, in which he had a 2.95 ERA was so great. However, when looking at the numbers, there’s reason to believe over the course of his career, Hellickson’s BABIP will always finish under 300. Hellickson’s minor league BABIP’s were typically less than .300 and below is a look at his Major league numbers (All projections are from the PECOTA system):

  2010 K/9: 8.17

  2011 K/9: 5.57

  2012 K/9 (projected): 7.2

  2010 BABIP: .267

  2011 BABIP: .223

  2012 BABIP (projected): .268

  2010 ERA: 3.47

  2011 ERA: 2.95

  2012 ERA (projected): 3.36

  2010 FIP: 3.88

  2011 FIP: 4.44

  2012 FIP (projected): 4.04

  Based on Fangraphs’ defensive metrics, the Rays had the best defense in the American league last season. This fact may have led to Hellickson’s extremely low ERA and BABIP, but also may have changed the starter’s approach completely. I don’t think it would be bold to postulate that Hellickson may have tried to not strike batters out in 2011, but instead attempt to pitch to softer contact, to capitalize on the Rays’ defensive abilities.

  Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system projects that Hellickson will continue to have a lower ERA than FIP, as well as, have a BABIP below .300. This projection system even lists Matt Cain as his top active comparable. Cain is known for the fact that he consistently has a lower ERA than his peripherals. Cain’s career BABIP is .265, which leads me to believe in Friedman’s point. Hellickson’s 2011 may have been slightly lucky, but a comparison with Cain, and a projection of a very good ERA (3.36) in 2012, goes a long way in proving that Hellickson’s Rookie of the Year campaign was not a fluke. Thus, I retract my original opinion about Hellickson, he’s not lucky; in fact he’s very good.

  

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• Royals and Giants deal: A Comparative Advantage Win-Win?

  November 07, 2011

  Today, the San Francisco Giants traded starter Jonathon Sanchez and prospect Ryan Verdugo to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for center fielder Melky Cabrera.  In 2011, the Giants’ offense was 22^nd in bWAR and 27^th in wOBA, while the Royals’ offense was 10^th in bWAR and 7^th in team wOBA.  San Francisco’s pitching sat at 4^th in both pWAR (22.9) and xFIP (3.66); Kansas City ranked 21^st in pWAR (13.5) and 28^th in xFIP (4.24). It is very apparent by looking at these two statistics that the Giants have a comparative (and absolute) advantage in pitching, and the Royals have the advantage in batting.  Thus, trading pitching for offense makes a great deal of sense for these two teams.  But was there a winner in this trade?

  According to Matt Swartz’ Arbitration Prediction Model Cabrera should receive a contract of around $4.4 million, while Sanchez’ salary is estimated to around $5.2 million.  Surprisingly, in this deal, if these predictions are correct the Royals (the small market club) will be taking on payroll (albeit only $800k), not the big market Giants.  Based on last year’s statistics Cabrera (4.2 WAR, .349 wOBA) would be worth $4.4 million next season ($21 million true value for a repeat performance).  However, based only on 2011, Sanchez (.6 WAR, 4.36 xFIP) is not worth $5.2 million, in fact has a true value of $3 million.  But, this is only a partial analysis, because of the fact that 2011 was Cabrera’s best season and 2011 was Sanchez’ worst.  On average since 2008, Cabrera has been significantly worse (1.23 WAR, .314 wOBA) including a -1 WAR season in 2010, while Sanchez’ numbers have looked much better (4.13 xFIP, 1.9 WAR).  If you base their “value” on these numbers they are both worth their contracts for 2012.

  The deal makes even more sense when you consider whom each player will be replacing on their new team, and who their replacement is on their former club.  Sanchez joins a team, in which even coming off an injury plagued disappointing campaign he is would be a top 4 starter in the lowly Kansas City rotation.  Also, by moving Cabrera, Kansas City can finally put Lorenzo Cain (the main piece in the Zack Grienke trade) in center field.  Cain in 49 career major league games has a wOBA of .336 (better than every Cabrera season, except ’11) and 1.3 WAR, also he has hit a wOBA of .385 in two seasons at AAA.  Cain will make the major league minimum this season, which is significantly less than the Royals would have spent to retain one of their starters, who will now be seamlessly replaced by Sanchez.  Had Cabrera played for San Francisco in 2011, he would have been their 2^nd best hitter only behind Pablo Sandoval.  Also, with a starting rotation of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Ryan Vogelsong, Sanchez was not a necessary asset for the Giants, similar to Cabrera being expendable for the Royals.  Barry Zito and his $19 million salary, can attempt to fill in Sanchez’ spot as the fifth starter. 

  From a financial and baseball performance standpoint this trade looks in everyway a win-win on paper.  That is not to say, however, that after Cabrera’s stellar 2011 campaign the Royals could have got more than Sanchez for his services.  Before wrapping up this post I would just like to point out the minor leaguers in these types of trades usually are left out of the conversation.  So I would just like to point out that Ryan Verdugo, in his first minor league season as a starter in AA last year, posted an average K/BB ration (2.11) and an average FIP of (4.10), he was much more effective as a reliever in seasons prior to last.  It will be interesting to see if Verdugo ever contributes to Kansas City in the future. 

   

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• Why the Diamondbacks will win the West.

  September 02, 2011

  How could the San Francisco Giants have over double the Diamondbacks payroll yet sit six games back of them in the N.L. West standings, going into this weekend’s crucial matchup in San Francisco? The defending champions have faltered this season because of a lack of successful solutions to fixing their offensive woes. Their only hitter with an above 2 WAR is Pablo Sandoval (3.9), and even with their pitching that’s impossible to overcome.

  The Giants also only have 4 hitters with a WAR over 1. It’s impossible to win a division when the team’s batting lineup cannot score any runs no matter how good their pitching is. The Giants have pumped over 45 million dollars into their starting rotation this season, but have failed in all of their attempts to buy offense to support that starting pitching.

  Many would be surprised to know that the Diamondbacks payroll is lower than the Florida Marlins, which is second lowest in the National League. Their entire team makes just 8 million dollars more than just the Giants starting rotation. However, the Diamondbacks are making the right decisions with their money. No player on the Diamondbacks makes 6 million dollars (that is 1/3 of Barry Zito’s salary for this season). Yet the Diamondbacks have a legitimate offense and their pitching can match up with that of the Giants

  Diamondbacks team batting WAR is 26.7 or third in the N.L. and first among teams in the N.L. that are in the playoff picture. The Giants have the worst batting WAR in the N.L. at 11.4. The Giants are second in the N.L. in pitching WAR at 21, while the Diamondbacks are 5^th at 13.8.

  The Diamondbacks have 5 hitters with a WAR over 3, which could make up for all those games Arizona is up in the standings. The Diamondbacks have been able to develop their offense, Justin Upton (6.3 WAR), Chris Young (3.6), Miguel Montero (3.6), Geraldo Parra (3.2) are all products of Arizona’s farm system. Stephen Drew (1.9) is homegrown as well, but the D-backs lost him for the season. However, they’ve been able to survive this injury, unlike the Giants’ ability to deal with Carlos Beltran and Brian Wilson going down.

  Arizona has also done a good job of making moves to acquire cheap youthful talented players, like Ryan Roberts (3.6), Daniel Hudson (4.3), Ian Kennedy (3.5), and David Hernandez (1.3). These four players make a combined 1.7 million dollars this season for a combined WAR of 12.7; that is ridiculous. Moving Edwin Jackson in exchange for Daniel Hudson, overpaid Mark Reynolds for David Hernandez, Max Scherzer for Ian Kennedy, and signing Ryan Roberts to a minor league deal in ’09, as well as, player development have made the Diamondbacks a viable contender.

  Arizona is proof that a team without a payroll the size of the Phillies and Giants in the N.L., can be extremely competitive when they make the right moves with the little money they have.

  

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• Madison Bumgarner: Hurt by Luck, Underrated by Statistics

  August 13, 2011

  When people look at pitching statistics; normally, they look at a pitcher’s Win-Loss record, ERA, and if they’re really interested the pitcher’s WHIP. These are the statistics that people value, as well as, what Cy Young Voting is based on. And based on these statistics one would never go as far to say Madison Bumgarner is the second best pitcher in baseball, let alone the second best pitcher on his team. Bumgarner is 7-11 with a 3.53 era and a 1.25 WHIP. Clearly, he has 4 more losses than wins, the 43^rd lowest ERA in the league, and tied for the 45^th best WHIP. Thus, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum (the assumed best pitchers on the Giants) look like much better pitchers based on these numbers. Cain and Lincecum’s numbers look like this, respectively, 9-9/3.00/1.1 and 10-9/2.69/1.17.

  There is something special about the defending World Series Champs’ third starter this season, and that is luck. Madison Bumgarner is tied with Edwin Jackson for the unluckiest pitcher in baseball with a .333 BABIP. For those who do not know, BABIP stands for batting average on balls in play. Which is to say how many balls fall in against the pitcher, (a luckless season would have a .3 BABIP) so a lot of those baseballs have been falling in against Bumgarner. When luck and fielding is factored out an ERA-like statistic is used known as FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). This statistic shows how truly effective Bumgarner has been this season, he is second in the league with a ridiculous 2.53 FIP (only behind Roy Halladay). His FIP is exactly 1 point lower than his ERA, as well as, a 3.5 FIP is consider good with a 4 being about average, thus a 2.53 is pure dominance. Bumgarner is also 6^th in the league in HR/9 with a .41 percentage.

  Bumgarner also has the 10^th best WAR (Wins Above Replacement) among pitchers, which is slightly better than Cain’s 4.2 and Lincecum’s 4.0. Cain and Lincecum also have extremely low FIP’s at 2.84 and 2.85 respectively, but based on non-luck statistics like FIP and WAR, Bumgarner has been the most effective starter on their talented staff.

  To make the point that luck is truly a factor in pitching statistics, Jeremy Hellickson is a perfect example to use. Hellickson has been in a many Rookie of the Year talks this season with a standard stat line of 10-7/3.05/1.14 . But Hellickson has been the luckiest pitcher in baseball this season with a .225 BABIP. His standard numbers are much better than that of Bumgarner’s, but his true effectiveness has been much lower (Hellickson has a 4.24 FIP). Standard pitching statistics can be inflated or deflated by a pitcher’s home field, defense, and luck, which is why you cannot judge Bumgarner by his “statistical cover."

  Baseball statistics will always be looked at from an economic perspective on this blog, and through this Bumgarner’s ability and value to the Giants becomes even more apparent. Bumgarner’s 2011 salary is $450k, which is 6% of Cain’s salary and 3% of what Lincecum is bringing in this year. For how effective Bumgarner has been under the radar this season for San Francisco, one would have to be incompetent not to see his ability as a serious bargain.

  

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• Craig Kimbrel: The Best Closer in Baseball and Why a Closer Should Never Be Paid Big-Time Money

  August 12, 2011

  How important is the 9^th inning? How important is the pitcher coming out of the bullpen to close out the 9^th inning? Do major league teams overvalue the 9^th inning? Was a 3 year/$37 million dollar contract to Francisco Rodriguez justified after a 62 save season?

  To answer these questions, I will look at the top 10 Major League closers in Saves, as well as, any closer being paid over $10 million outside of the top 10, namely Jonathon Papelbon, Brad Lidge and Francisco Rodriguez (if you could even consider the last two closers). In order to analyze baseball’s best closers I used three factors, VORP, save efficiency, and salary. VORP is the amount of runs saved by the closer over a replacement Triple-A call-up, and safe efficiency is just saves subtracted by blown saves.

  These two factors help show the true value of a closer, because for a pitcher like Jonathon Papelbon, who does not get that many save opportunities, his value is still high because he saves a lot of runs and does not blow many saves (only one this season). Based only on these two statistics the top 10 closers in baseball look like this:

  1. Craig Kimbrel

  2. John Axford

  3. Joel Hanrahan

  4. Jonathon Papelbon

  5. Brian Wilson

  6. Jose Valverde

  7. Heath Bell

  8. Mariano Rivera

  9. Sergio Santos

  10. Leo Nunez

  However, when salary is added into the mix this list changes drastically, because the “game’s best closers” are unbelievably overpaid. Check out the changes…

  1. Craig Kimbrel
  2. John Axford
  3. Sergio Santos
  4. Drew Storen
  5. Jordan Walden
  6. Nefalti Feliz
  7. Joel Hanrahan
  8. Leo Nunez
  9. Chris Perez
  10. Brian Wilson

  The top 6 closers, when salary is included, make under $450k this season, which is why their value is so much higher than the rest. This shows how truly good the Brewers’ John Axford and the Braves’ Craig Kimbrel have been this season, they lead both lists with the best statistics and the best value cause of their low salaries. Kimbrel has been worth over 15 times his contract this season, and Axford trails just behind him, he is worth over 13 times his. The top 6 on this list make a combined 2.5 million dollars this season. That is 1/5 of each of Jonathon Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, and Brad Lidge’s 12 million dollar contracts, and less then half of each of Brian Wilson, Jose Valverde, Huston Street, and Heath Bell’s 7 million dollar contracts.

  It seems to have become a trend in baseball for a big market ballclub to sign their closer to about a 12 million dollar a year deal, and for a smaller market ballclub to sign their all-star closer to about a 7 million dollar a year deal. A closer, literally, has to be an all-star, however, to be worth that 7 million dollar deal. The only closers this season that; so far, project to be worth that much this season would only be the top 5 of the original list, based on statistics. Thus, most major league teams overvalue the 9^th inning, and routinely overpay their closers to get their “coveted saves”. To answer the question raised at the beginning of this analysis, K-rod’s huge contract with the Mets after his record setting season was not justified, because it was impossible to expect him to stay on a 62 save-season level, as well as, no closer is worth over 12 million dollars a season, let alone 10 million.

  Thus, major league teams should bring up closers from their farm system that make near negligible salaries, along the lines of Kimbrel, Axford, Storen, Santos, and Walden, and let them grow and close out games until they can either be traded for more valuable pieces just before they reach free agency, or just let them go into free agency. Because when a closer becomes a free agent, their value decreases greatly, a good closer on the market now receives at least 7 million dollar a year deals, that truly are not worth it even for an all-star closer.

  Many so-called experts will say you cannot just throw any guy into the 9^th inning, that there is a specific demeanor about it, and that proven true closers are hard to come by. By this reasoning, overpaying for a Jonathon Papelbon or a Heath Bell is somewhat justified; however, the experts are wrong about this. Year in and year out, new closers pop-up in the majors and some prove themselves and some do not. Those who do, though, become drastically overpaid when it comes time for a contract extension.

  

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• Desert Duo: The Best (Economic) Pitching Tandem in Baseball

  August 10, 2011

  In baseball, there was a time when having one ace starting pitcher in a rotation was good enough, and having two made a team very formidable. In 2011, it is not good enough to only have one main workhorse, having two aces leading the way is the only way. Similar to football, where the two running-back system has become big, baseball has shown that in order to win not only in the regular season, but also in the playoffs having a solid 1-2 punch is critical. This was proven in the World Series last season, both representatives, the Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants, had two aces (Cliff Lee and CJ Wilson for Texas and Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain for San Francisco).

  Major League Baseball, like any other sport, is a copycat league, for this reason, free agent pitching has become a hot commodity, with teams shelling out big bucks in hope to get their very own pair of aces. Now big market ball clubs hold most of the top pitching tandems, owing millions of dollars to their rotation leaders. With the playoff stretch upon us, and the playoffs looming very soon, there is much debate across baseball of which team has the best 1-2 punch. Thus, I decided to use WAR (Wins over replacement player), FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), and total salary to analyze the 11 top pitching tandems to decide which team has the best 1-2 punch (economically) in baseball.

  The Red Sox’ Beckett and Lester have been solid but not above average, luck has for sure been on their side this season, the highest FIP on this list and with their combined salaries of 22.75 million their value as a 1-2 punch sits at the bottom. Tampa Bay has a rotation bolstered by two aces in David Price and James Shields. These guys eat serious innings for the Rays, but they have the 2^nd lowest WAR and FIP of the 11 “punches” analyzed. The Rangers have been lead this season by a couple of youthful starters in CJ Wilson and Alexi Ogando. They are both good, but not as strong as what Texas had last season or as some of the other frontline starters in baseball. The Mariners’ Pineda and Hernandez have been good, but not stellar. They get held back on this list by Hernandez’ contract and Pineda faltering of late.

  Justin Verlander has been unhittable this year (literally and figuratively), but Ricky Porcello is not what you would call a top-end number 2 guy in this conversation, thus, the Tigers do not have a top 5 1-2 punch in their rotation. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are always among the first pitchers to come to mind in a conversation about the best top of rotation guys for a while now. They delivered the Giants a World Series last year, and they have thanked them by not performing up to their standards of past years, as well as, now making a combined $21 million dollars this season. Lincecum and Cain have no business having the same combined WAR as Porcello and Verlander, and are only higher on this list, because of their 3^rd lowest combined FIP.

  C.C. Sabathia gives the Yankees one of baseball’s best #1’s, and if not for his otherworldly 24 million dollar salary and lack of number 2 starter the Yankees would surely have a higher spot than just 5^th best. Bartolo Colon delivers good value for them at 900k a year but not enough to compete with the likes of the Phillies, Angels, and Diamondbacks. Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw have an extremely low combined FIP of below 6 (5.91), and Kershaw has a nearly negligible salary. However, neither is a true workhorse, with 300.1 innings between them not a huge workload, as well as, a combined WAR of 7.1, which is only baseball’s 6^th best. These facts keep the Dodgers from breaking into top 3 of best 1-2 punches in baseball.

  The Phillies’ combination of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee share the best numbers of this group with the Angels Dan Haren and Jered Weaver. Philadelphia’s starters have a unworldly combined FIP of below 5 at 4.93. No other team in baseball can boast of having two starters who combine for a lower FIP than that. And with a combined WAR of 10.4, the Phillies top two guys have numbers that are both bona fide and ridiculous. They are only number 3 on my list of best top starting pitching tandems; however, because baseball is a business. Thus, numbers should be looked at from not only a statistical point of view, but also an economic point of view, which is Lee and Halladay’s downfall. Together they make the most money on this list at 31 million dollars this season, which detracts from their value significantly enough to keep them from being number 1 overall (as most think they are).

  Dan Haren and Jered Weaver have created more wins this season (10.5) than any other combination of teammates in baseball. They have the second lowest FIP also, that only trail that of the Phillies. Combined their salaries are about equal to that of Roy Halladay’s and are less than that of Sabathia in New York. The Angels’ top guys have put up better numbers than their big name West Coast pitching tandem rival in San Francisco for less money. Economically, Weaver and Haren make more sense than Halladay and Lee, when looking at the tandems with the best numbers. But why then are the Angels not the top pitching tandem on this list?

  The answer to that question comes out of the desert heat of Arizona. The Diamondbacks have made a lot of large trades in the past seasons. Through those trades they acquired two of 2011’s best pitchers, two guys who have been aces, but do not get very much attention playing out in Phoenix. Words, that I would use, to describe Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy would be raw, talented, incomparable economically, and just plain filthy. By sheer statistics the Diamondbacks starters sit around the level of the Tigers’ and Dodgers’ tandems just outside the top 5. Ranking 7^th with a combined (6.52) FIP, and 5^th in WAR (7.1). There is one gigantic difference between the Arizona duo in comparison to the 10 other combinations that were analyzed, and that is in the money being paid to them. Excluding the Diamondbacks the range in total salary for the tandems is from just over 6 million (Rays) to 31 million (Phillies), with mean of almost 17 million dollars being shelled out for two bonafide ace starting pitchers.

  The reason for why the Diamondbacks were excluded from the range and average total salary, is because the total salary for Hudson and Kennedy is an outlier on this list. The Diamondbacks’ aces are being paid a total of $842,000 for their more than average services this season. Ironically, the Phillies two aces, Halladay and Lee, make almost 37 times what Kennedy and Hudson are paid. C.C. Sabathia, the highest paid pitcher in baseball, makes 29 times as much as the two pitchers do combined. On the free agent market, its near impossible to sign a viable ace for any less than 10 million dollars per season. This is what makes the Diamondbacks 1-2 punch so remarkable. To have two aces, together, making under a million dollars this year make the Desert Duo a(n) (economic) no-brainer for the best 1-2 pitching tandem in baseball.

  Stats as of August 8th,

  Duo/Total Salary/Total FIP/Total/WAR Value

  D-Backs/$842,000/6.52/7.1/0.58

  Angels/$20,115,000/5.3/10.5/0.22

  Phillies/$31,000,000/4.93/10.4/0.15

  Dodgers/$6,775,000/6.06/6.9/0.10

  Giants/$21,333,333/5.71/8.1/0.09

  Yankees/$25,185,714/6.04/8.1/0.07

  Tigers/$14,386,000/6.55/7.5/0.06

  Mariners/$12,114,000/6.36/6.7/0.02

  Rangers/$7,430,150/6.67/6.6/-0.01

  Rays/$6,334,671/6.76/6.4/-0.05

  Red Sox/$22,750,000/7.11/5.6/-0.06

  

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