MLB best bets: Odds, expert picks, predictions for Tuesday 4/16

Twins vs. Orioles

Tuesday, April 16, 6:35 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Chris Paddack Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120, FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

Minnesota hands the ball to right-hander Chris Paddack on Tuesday, and he should be a good candidate to back in the strikeout department.

He hasn't gotten off to the most dominating start this season, but he recorded five strikeouts in his last start and is in an excellent spot to repeat that performance against Baltimore.

Entering this matchup, the Orioles rank in the league's bottom half in batting average and on-base percentage. Instead, they have relied heavily on power, but high-slugging teams also strike out more.

Looking at Baltimore's projected starting lineup for Tuesday, five of its nine hitters possess a strikeout rate north of 23%. So, it's unsurprising that each of the past four starting pitchers to face the O's generated over a strikeout per inning.

Paddack does an excellent job of making opposing hitters chase, which could prove problematic for this young Baltimore lineup.

Pick: Chris Paddack Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Yankees vs. Blue Jays

Tuesday, April 16, 7:07 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Under 8.5 (-112, FanDuel)

By Kenny Ducey

It doesn’t make the most sense given how he profiles as a pitcher, but Yusei Kikuchi’s been rather dominant against the Yankees over his career.

After spinning 5 1/3 shutout innings at Yankee Stadium a few weeks ago with seven strikeouts, his ERA versus New York now stands at 3.24 in 13 appearances across 58 1/3 innings. He's only allowed three earned runs in his past three head-to-head matchups.

So, all logic goes out the window if you're considering fading Kikuchi from his past numbers.

Still, if you focus on this season, he’s been dominant, with a 30.8% strikeout rate coming out of seemingly nowhere and excellent expected stats sitting, albeit with another high walk rate.

The Yankees love to walk, but that hasn’t stopped Kikuchi from getting the better of them repeatedly.

On the other hand, I don’t think the market respects Carlos Rodon, who was unequivocally one of the five best pitchers in baseball before signing with the Yankees and subsequently missing a large chunk of time due to injury. His stuff still grades out the same as it did in San Francisco, and while his surface-level statistics aren't incredible, he struck out six over six frames against the Marlins last week.

Rodon has looked like a much better version of himself in his last two outings this year. He meets a lineup that is middle of the pack in wRC+ and starved for power, which should also alleviate many of the concerns that arose last year with Rodon about the long ball.

I love both pitchers in this one.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-112)

Padres vs. Brewers

Tuesday, April 16, 7:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Padres ML (-125, BetMGM)

By John Feltman

The Padres begin a three-game set against the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday evening, sending Dylan Cease to the mound to hopefully stifle the red-hot Brew Crew.

Wade Miley gets the ball for the Brewers for his second start of the year.

Let's keep it simple and not overthink things here: Miley is a career journeyman who lives through contact. He doesn't miss bats often (8% swinging strike rate last season, 23.1% CSW in his first start), and many of his pitches live in the bottom of the zone to induce ground balls.

The Padres have plenty of experience against Miley, entering the matchup 20-for-72 (.278) against him. These are not astronomical numbers, but Jurickson Profar and Xander Bogaerts are hitting above .330 against him.

Cease has been a victim of allowing too many free passes throughout his career, which has hindered his electric repertoire. He has gotten off to a good start to the season but still allows three walks per nine innings pitched.

The Brewers are arguably the hottest offensive team in baseball, but they should eventually regress. Despite their talent, they've been overperforming.

Cease has excellent stuff, and I expect a dominant effort from him, alongside a good offensive night from the bats against Miley.

I like the Padres a lot to take care of business tonight.

Pick: Padres ML (-125)

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks

Tuesday, April 16, 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Diamondbacks TT o5.5 (+114, DraftKings)

By D.J. James

Kyle Hendricks might be baseball's worst pitcher at the moment.

He has had a heck of a career and was crucial to the Cubs’ playoff runs in late 2010, but that doesn't mean fading him is impolite.

His walk rate is still above average, and he still limits hard contact. But whatever was left of his arsenal seems to have gone to the wayside. He owns a 7.95 xERA with a 12.1% strikeout rate.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are not loaded, and they only have a 94 wRC+ off of righties thus far this season. However, the D-Backs have eight active players with a .330 or better xwOBA off of right-handers in 2024. Considering the Snakes boast an 11.5% walk rate and sub-20% strikeout rate, this matchup with Hendricks is ideal.

The Cubs bullpen also has its question marks. Julian Merryweather is injured, and four arms are below a 4.00 xFIP.

Meanwhile, Hendricks hasn't pitched deep into games, which could further strain the relief staff and force the lower-leverage guys into the game.

Héctor Neris has been awful. Drew Smyly can manage long relief, but he has not been his best, either (12.1% walk rate).

This is a tremendous opportunity for the Snakes to explode in their hitter-friendly stadium.

Pick: Diamondbacks TT o5.5 (+114)

Reds vs. Mariners

Tuesday, Apr 16, 9:40pm ET, MLB.TV
Hunter Greene Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-150, DraftKings)

By John Feltman

Hunter Greene enters the contest with a 4.86 ERA, but the metrics suggest he's been unlucky.

Greene boasts an impressive 13.6% swinging strike rate and 4.9% barrel rate.

Opposing offenses have yet to square the ball up consistently against the young phenom, a persistent issue throughout the 2023 season. The Mariners offense has some boppers, but they enter the game ranked 28th in strikeout rate.

We are paying a bit of a tax with a juiced 7.5 on the strikeout total, but it's better value than taking the number at 8. Greene has the potential to spin a gem on Tuesday, but his high pitch counts tend to force him to leave the game early.

If Greene keeps the pitch count at a manageable level, I think we can easily clear 7.5. I do not mind making this a ladder bet, tossing quarter units on Over eight, nine, and 10 Ks at FanDuel.

Pick: Hunter Greene Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-150)